Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
